March 28, 2008

Fairness?

Pissed yet again. Now it's about the various politicians claiming a "financial fairness" argument.

The argument is: since the Fed put up all this money to ensure Bear Stearn's assets, it's only fair they should also put up money to ensure the mortgages of ailing families.

It just goes to show that most people still don't understand what happened.

If you want the Fed to treat homeowners the way they treated Bear Stearns, here is what it would be like: all your assets would be taken over by another family in a better financial position than you are. You wouldn't lose your home and you wouldn't have to file for bankruptcy. But every financial move you make would be controlled by this other family. And if you didn't agree with them, they would have the right to kick you out.

Is that what people really want? I don’t think so.

Really, stop making the argument that the Fed's actions concerning Bear Stearns should be extended to everyone else. Nobody wants to pay the price that comes with that particular courtesy.

Book Review - His Majesty's Dragon

His Majesty's Dragon
By Naomi Novik
Published March 2006

See synopsis and editorial opinions on Amazon and Barnes & Noble.

The book uses a pretty classic dragon-human relationship: a dragon chooses and bonds with a rider for life and the dragon has a utilitarian role in society as an intelligent beast working in tandem with mankind. The personalities of the dragons are also typical - a kind of omniscient, selfless devotee, keenly aware and deeply involved in the rider's thoughts and emotions.

What makes the book stand out is the alternate history setting of the Napoleonic Wars, where dragons are prized as the main components of an airforce that battles alongside the ships and infantry of the age. Another interesting idea is that dragon breeds vary geographically, so a French dragon has slightly different build and innate skills than say a British or Chinese one. More advanced specimens become commanders and trainers, others are relegated to messenger or pack mule roles.

The main character is a British Naval Officer who bonds to Temeraire, a rare, incredibly intelligent Oriental breed, after collecting his egg as booty from a ship raid. Temeraire and his rider, William Laurence, join the British Aerial Corps and the story follows their training and battles. There's an overarching plot concerning betrayal and evil French scheming, but that takes a back seat to the author's ruminations on life in the Corps and the mechanics of dragon fighting.

Slow and wordy in some spots, overall the book is an OK read. Temeraire is actually the most interesting character, though some of the side cast provide entertainment. The world could be more captivating and I really couldn't find a comfortable rhythm in the prose. I know there are two other books in the series and I'd be willing to give the author another chance (this was a debut novel after all), but I definitely hope to see some improvement in the next installment.

March 26, 2008

The Real Story

I'm really pissed at the media referring to the "Fed bailout of Bear Stearns."

Bear Stearns was NOT bailed out. Nobody at the firm got a single penny of the $30B put up by the Federal Reserve. That money is meant to cover potential losses to JP Morgan on riskier, illiquid assets. JP Morgan along with Bear's clients and transactional parties were the ones bailed out.

The reality is that Bear handles trillions of dollars each day in the financial system. From investment accounts, funds, and brokerage services, to financial advising, to clearing houses, from credit swaps and nightly repos to positions held in various areas, the firm is tied via thousands of deals and contracts to other banks, individuals, and organizations.

The motivation behind the Fed's buyout push and its monetary guarantee was to prevent the collapse of these relationships, not to reward Bear Stearns. Whether this was appropriate is a separate debate. The point I'm trying to make here is that most people think Bear Stearns was saved by the Fed's action, but that is not true.

JP Morgan made out like a bandit, even with the new $10/share price and the unknown liabilities they inherited ($30B of which are being assured by the Fed...even better for them). Investors who have accounts with the firm were bailed out. Assets held by Bear were protected. Those who loaned to Bear, had bonds issued by Bear, depended on Bear for positions and trades, were bailed. Contracts and deals were retained, business operations were allowed to continue.

However, the company itself is smoke. Once the deal closes, JP Morgan can do whatever they want with all the assets. The folks at Bear Stearns would have no control over anything that happens; they would be at the mercy of the new owner. Of course, one hopes JP Morgan takes a collaborative approach and includes former Bear management in any decisions, and one hopes they are sensitive to employee concerns and make wise financial determinations. But that is entirely up to them.

The fact of the matter is that Bear Stearns would no longer function as its own company. It wasn't saved, it was swallowed whole by another entity who then would direct all its operations. I wouldn't call that a bailout. Not at all.

March 21, 2008

Welcome Spring!

Donated to the American Cancer Society's Daffodil Days this year and got this lovely bunch to ring in the season:







March 18, 2008

The Waiting Game

To the extent that I'm allowed to say anything about all the craziness, here's the basic shape of things:

Like any transaction of this magnitude, it'll take some time before JPMorgan can sort everything out. There will be law suits, whiny shareholders, angry folk, and all sorts of mayhem. Once the papers are signed, a shitload of work lies ahead, conducting diligence on all the business units, figuring out what exactly they bought and what the hell to do with all of it.

So that means until our new bosses are ready to talk to us, my team is runnning standard business. Currently, our salary and benefits remain the same and we're still doing what we do best: closing deals, buying assets, and processing money. It's all a waiting game now, to see what they decide to do with the operation. Best case, they like our market segment and keep funding us as a subsidiary. Worst case, they sell off the assets and dump the employees.

The next couple weeks are going to be much busier than normal, since anytime you have a new parent company, you have to essentially "sell" yourself again and make a case for the business model. Obviously, I think we have a good one, but whether we fit into JPMorgan's big picture is thoroughly up to them.

The real losers here are the shareholders. Luckily, I didn't have any Bear stock, so I've actually suffered no monetary loss from all of this. Nervous about the future, sure. Needless to say, the resume is getting a good dusting and polish. But that's something many people have to deal with. As Heidi Klum would say in her sexy, sexy accent, One day you're in....

March 17, 2008

Crash

As of now, my business unit is still operating as usual.

But the next 90 days are going to be real interesting...

March 16, 2008

Who's My Minion?!?

All sorts of tidbits have been revealed about D&D ver 4.0 which is scheduled to release this June. Any arguments for or against various changes have been hashed out ad nauseam on geek boards all over, so I won't repeat them here. I have my misgivings about certain decisions being made, but until I actually get my hands on the core books and roll a game or two, I'm withholding judgment.

As expected, WoTC is promoting this update pretty fiercely. While most of it is the usual fluff, I have to admit, this little promo is irresistible. The gnome is just too precious.

March 13, 2008

Movies

Even without seeing them, I can review these films:

10,000 BC = Our Version of the Stone Age is Way Cooler than the Actual One

The Other Boleyn Girl = Attractive Young Stars in Lush Period Costume

Alternatively: The Director Wanted to Make a Movie with Hot Natalie Portman on Scarlett Johansson Action but had to Settle for Fake Historical Drama to Get Legitimate Billing

On the other hand, I am salivating for Dark Knight Returns and Iron Man. The summer blockbuster season cannot come soon enough!

March 9, 2008

Wiiiiiiii!

Super Smash Bros. Brawl is ours! I should probably post a review at some point, but for now, it's just too much fun to stop playing.